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Russian view on Trump and Brexit

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Извинения перед российскими читателями

Мои британские друзья и некоторые читатели в других странах, которые читают на русском, уже давно просили меня начать писать статьи на английском языке, но у меня не хватало времени, а может быть, и не было внутренней потребности. На английском я писал только справки и аналитические материалы, например, для Relational Peacebuilding Initiatives, с которой, в рамках ее Рабочей группы, работаю над проектом по урегулированию украинского кризиса.

Однако сейчас желание писать и публиковать материалы на английском языке появилось, вызванное необходимостью, спросом, интересом к моей аналитике, пониманием того, что настало время обратиться напрямую к западному читателю.

Дело это не легкое. Просто переводить мои материалы, которые я пишу на русском языке, не получается. Западный читатель многого не понимает, не знает, на многое смотрит совершенно по-другому по сравнению с российским читателем.

Приходится на одну и ту же тему писать совершенно два разных материала.

И тут я подумал, что это может быть отдельным интересным проектом: написать две серии статей по одной и той же теме, но одну для русскоязычных читателей, прежде всего, естественно, для граждан, в том числе, бывших, стран, которые раньше входили в состав СССР, а другую для англоязычных читателей, то есть западноевропейцев, прежде всего, британцев, а также американцев и граждан некоторых других стран, например, Индии, где английский язык является государственным.

Думаю, что для некоторых двуязычных читателей этот проект может быть интересен с чисто технической точки зрения: как будут читаться материалы по одной теме одного автора, но написанные для разных читателей.

Для них, двуязычных, я и публикую эту серию в российском интернете.

Итак,

Introduction

In July, I started writing and publishing in Russia a series of articles under the title «The Gunshot of British “Aurora” and Trump Phenomena”. For foreign readers, who don’t know the history of Russia, here I explain, that the battleship Cruiser “Aurora" occupies a special place in Russian history. This battleship, standing on the river Neva, in St. Petersburg, in October 1917, was under political influence and the command of the Bolshevik (Communist) party. “Aurora” made a gunshot as a signal to attack by the Bolshevik military unit of the Winter Palace and the arrest of the Russian Intermediate Government. This storm of the Winter Palace is known in the World history as the Great October Socialist Revolution. This revolution brought to life the Soviet Russia, the USSR and later fifteen independent States, including the modern Russia, led by Vladimir Putin.

In those articles, I wrote that Brexit and appearance of “the Trump phenomena” and trampism in the USA have become the loud and powerful signals demonstrating the start of the processes that can result in a political radical transformation, that is bound to change the World.

In July, I was absolutely sure and made it clear in my articles, that Donald Trump was to become the president of the USA. I wrote about this, analyzing the reasons and the processes that were bringing Donald Trump to power. My articles became very popular in Russia. Many readers in Russia agreed with me or believed that it was possible.

I expressed and discussed my views openly in London, also. The reaction in the UK was different. In the beginning, most people in the UK were surprised and shocked by the idea that “such a nasty guy” may come to power in the US. Later, watching the upcoming of Trump, looking with surprise and fear into my eyes, they started asking me: “Do you really believe that this is possible?” At the end of the election campaign, I had a feeling that most of them started understanding and accepting, that Trump was going to win, but they didn’t dare to say this in public. That is old British tradition: to speak in public one thing, in private another and believe in third.

Some of the foreign readers of my articles, who could read Russian, wrote to me suggesting, that I should translate my articles in English and publish them in the UK and the US, because “nobody in the West writes about this like you, from you angle.”

So, I decided to rewrite my articles, making changes, which are necessary for the Western readers to understand my position and the events I was telling about. Soon, I understood that I was to write absolutely new series, because what is obvious and well known in Russia, has to be explained for most of the foreign readers (like my example with the Cruiser “Aurora”). 

From my point of view, it is not possible to understand the ongoing crisis in the West, the economic problems and the political processes and increasing political and social divides without explaining of what has happened in the USSR in 1980-s and the beginning of 1990-s. Now, the West is starting the transformation, which had been started in the Soviet Union and went wrong and out of control of the initiators, - the process known as “Gorbachev’s perestroika”. It is important to understand the Soviet and the Russian history of the last decades in order to avoid in the West the tragic results of Soviet “perestroika”. 

However, here lies the main difficulty. The Russian history, especially of the last fifty years, is misinterpreted and distorted in the West and in the modern Russia. The majority of the Russian people know the truth, the real history is written in their hearts. They know it from their own experience, but it is impossible for the Western readers to understand the real picture, to see my point of view without explaining and unveiling the true history. 

I hope you will enjoy this reading.

Valery Morozov, London, 29.11.16

 

Part 1

Most Valuable Hostage in Moscow

           

I decided to start this series of my articles with a story, which is going on and happening right now. One can use this story to write a detective novel or a script for an action movie. However, the story is a clear manifestation of an acting law in the politics, which is frequently neglected by the modern politicians and their advisors. More, neglecting of this law is one of the factors lying behind Brexit and Trump phenomena…

Two metal briefcases, one minister and a few “polite men”

On November 14, in Moscow, the operatives of the FSB arrested Aleksey Ulyukaev, the Russian Minister for economic development. He was arrested few hours before his flight to Peru, where he was to attend the summit of the ministers on the Asian and Pacific economic cooperation.

Ulyukaev was arrested, when he tried to leave the Moscow office of the biggest Russian oil company, State Corporation “Rosneft”. He had an appointment with Igor Sechin, the president of "Rosneft", but Sechin was delayed at a meeting. Sechin had left a message, that Ulyukaev should not wait for him and should collect what he had come for. “Everything is ready”,- that was the message.

Ulyukaev went into Igor Sechin's restroom, accompanied by Sechin’s security man. The minister left the restroom after few minutes. Along with his personal leather briefcase, he carried one more - a metal briefcase. The second metal briefcase was carried by the security man. 

They left the building, came to Ulyukaev’s car and put the briefcases in the car. The driver started the engine and drove to the exit from the office territory of “Rosneft”. The car reached the gates, but the gates didn’t open. The driver gave the car signal. Nothing happened. The driver gave a special signal, which is nicknamed “kvakyshka” in Russia and is installed only in the cars of the top Russian State officials. The gates didn’t open. Instead, the FSB operatives came to the car of the minister and produced their IDs asking Ulyukaev to leave the car.

Ulyukaev refused to leave the car and tried to make a call, using his mobile phone. There was no mobile signal. He tried to give a call using the special protected telephone system provided only to the top Russian officials, installed in their offices and cars and to be used in emergency cases, or for important and secret talks. It was not working also. Only at this point, Ulyukaev understood that he was in deep trouble. Everything was too serious.

Ulyukaev sat in the car for some time, in shock. The FSB officers were standing round the car, waiting.

When Ulukaev left the car, the FSB officers checked the briefcases and found 2 million dollars in cash. Ulyukaev was arrested and charged with the attempt to extort a bribe from the State Corporation “Rosneft” for the approval by the Ministry of economic development of the purchasing by “Rosneft” of another big Russian oil company “Bashneft”, which controls huge deposits of oil reserves in the Russian North and in the border area between Europe and Siberia.

Ulyukaev has become the first state official of the highest rank to be arrested in the modern Russian history, since the Soviet Union. This arrest became a hot topic in the Russian society, especially in the mass media. There were different versions of the event, different understanding of the motives and the aims of the FSB, the Russian Secret Service, which carried out the operation.

Some commentators wrote that the arrest of Ulyukaev was a blow to the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, some thought that Putin used the victory of Donald Trump in the US Presidential elections to deliver a blow to the pro-American liberal group in the Russian Government and political elite. Some saw the arrest as a manifestation of the internal struggle between different groups in the Russian elite and secret services.  

The idea that Uljukaev was arrested to weaken the position of the Russian Prime Minister and the former President Dmitry Medvedev has some reason behind it. Medvedev is disliked by many of the closest friends and companions of Vladimir Putin. It looks as if Putin himself does not consider Medvedev to be a genius or a strong personality, but that is exactly the reason, why Putin had made Medvedev the Russian President for four years and later the Head of the Government. Putin can remove Medvedev at any moment, and for this, he doesn’t need the scandal with the detention of the Minister of economic development, who on his appointment as the Minister in 2013 had received personal congratulations from the US State Department and the Ambassador of the United States in Moscow John Francis Tefft. 

The idea that Putin “has got a signal from Trump”, that Washington now would not be defending the Russian liberals, and Putin could now attack and remove the Russian liberals from their positions in the government, political structures and Regional administrations, is ridiculous. First, I am sure, that Putin and Trump had many more important topics to discuss during their first telephone conversation. The future of the Russian liberals occupied, until now, one of the last places in the list of the problems in the Russian – US relations… 

Second, the Russian pro-American liberals had played crucial role in bringing Vladimir Putin to power in 1999, and he remembers this.

“You will pay for this!”

In August 1999, the Russian President Boris Eltsin decided to appoint Vladimir Putin as a new Prime Minister of Russia. According to the Russian Constitution, Prime Minister is to fulfil the duties of the President in case the President is not able to fulfil his duties due to poor health, or any other reason. Eltsin was ill, heavy drinking, lost the ability to work, his public support had fallen down to 4%. Everybody in Russia understood, that Eltsin was to resign in near future. It was clear, that Putin was to takeover power in case he was appointed to the post of the Prime Minister.

However, the appointment of PM was to be approved by the Russian Parliament – State Duma. At that time, the Russian liberals were the powerful group in the Parliament. Eltsin and Putin needed their support.

The leaders of the liberals met to discuss the appointment of Vladimir Putin. In the beginning, the majority was against giving support to Putin, but Anatoly Chubais, who was one of the leaders of Russian liberals, the First Deputy PM since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the main ideologue and organizer of the privatization of the Soviet State properties and wealth in 1990-s, strongly supported Putin. Actually, he was responsible before Eltsin and Putin for providing the support of the liberals to Putin in Russian Parliament. 

Chubais managed to convince most of the liberals, but one of the very influential liberals, Lev Ponomarev, was against. Ponomarev insisted, that the liberals should not allow the former KGB officer to take the position of PM and later – the President.

- He is ours! - Chubais shouted, trying to convince Ponomarev, but Ponomarev rejected the appeal. He didn’t believe neither Chubais, nor Putin. 

Ponomarev had been active anti-communist for many years before the collapse of the Soviet Union, and he knew well the character of the KGB man.

- There is no "former KGB", - he replied. - He will bring the people like himself in power, and we will not be able to do much! We will be removed from power! Even Gorbachev was afraid of KGB!

- Stop talking bullshit! - Chubais shouted, like he was never shouting before. – Putin is our man!

Ponomarev kept his position, but most of the liberals got afraid or believed Chubais and supported him.

- I will never forget and forgive you! - said Chubais to Ponomarev at the end. - You'll pay for this!

- That what he said to me: "You'll pay for this!"… What was I to pay him? And how I was to pay?! - Ponomarev told me that story, laughing. - Chubais promised Eltsin and Putin, that Putin will get support in the Parliament, and he has done everything to push this decision through. I've never seen him so nervous and angry. If we had refused to support Putin, he would not be appointed, and Eltsin would have to find another heir. The whole history would go different way. Chubais is to be blamed!

I agreed, laughing. Actually, Ponomarev quoted Boris Eltsin, who once speaking on the Russian TV with the Address to the Nation, tried to explain the failures of the economic reforms in Russia by saying the phrase, which became a slogan and joke among the Russian public: "Chubais is to be blamed for everything!"... 

In any case, Putin would not initiate an attack against the Russian liberals, who had turned from Ponomarev in 1999 and who remain an important part and “reserve” of Putin’s Regime now. He would not do this… unless he had an important reason, purpose and aim.

Ponomarev foresaw the future of the pro-Western liberals in Russia. The arrest of Uljukaev is a manifestation of the attitude of Putin towards Russian liberals and of a forthcoming change in their position and in their role in modern Russia. 

Here, I’d like to explain my view on the reasons that brought the end to the career of Ulyukaev.

The “games” of the Russian Secret Services

It happened, that until now I am the only one in the modern Russian history, who stood against the corruption in the Moscow Kremlin, managed to organize the secret sting operation against the Kremlin authorities and forced the Russian Investigation Committee to open against the Kremlin top ranking officials a criminal investigation. This struggle took me three years (2009-2012), gave me rather useful and rich experience in the field, which allows me to make the analysis of Ulyukaev’s story, to a certain extent, from “inside”, from a perspective, which is different from what was presented by the Russian authorities, mass media and the Western observers.

I would like to highlight a few points:  

Point 1. The FSB controlled and watched Uljukaev since 2015, many months before his arrest. Officially, a decision to start the surveillance on a Minister of Russian Federation can be taken only by the Head of one of the main Departments of the Federal Security Service (FSB), with the approval of the Director of the FSB. There is no other option in the modern Russia, where, since Putin came to power, the system of taking such decisions copies one of the Soviet Union.

In the USSR, the highest ranking officials (and the Minister for economic development of Russia is one of the top positions in the State) were enlisted in “the Nomenclature of the Central Committee of the Communist Party”. The people, enlisted in the Nomenclature could be appointed, transferred to another position or fired only by the Decision of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union. The Decision was to be signed by the Secretary of the Party, who was responsible for the staff policy in the Party and the Soviet State. In 1988, when I was enlisted in the Nomenclature, the Decision on my enlisting was signed by the Secretary of the CC CPSU Egor Ligachev, the second man in the Party and State after Mikhail Gorbachev.

According to the regulations existed in Soviet times, the KGB officer (KGB was the predecessor of the FSB) could not take any action against a nomenclature man without the permission of the Party Secretary. It means that the KGB officer could not take any action, unless given an order by the Chairman of the KGB, who was the only one, who could get the approval from the Secretary of the Party. 

Any further and more serious action against a minister of the Soviet Union, like detention or arrest, required the approval not only by the Secretary, but also by the General Secretary of the Communist party, the leader of the Soviet Union. 

The same system, in a modernized form, exists in the modern Russia. The role of the CC CPSU is performed by the Administration of the President Vladimir Putin.

The Director of the FSB Aleksandr Bortnikov, long-time associate of Vladimir Putin and his trusted man, had to inform Putin and to get his approval of the decision to start an investigation on Ulyukaev.  

Point 2. The corruption is spread deeply in the Russian government and elite. This is a well-known fact. Most of the members of the government comprise one circle, they are united by the pro-Western liberal views and are interconnected in different ways. However, they all obey the rules, imposed by the Kremlin: they may quietly “benefit” from their position through their connections to the private and public companies, but they can’t create problems for the Kremlin. If they create problems, the Kremlin creates problems for them.

“Rosneft” is a State Corporation, one of the biggest in modern Russia. Its president, Igor Sechin, is a very close man to Putin. He was Putin’s ‘right hand’ and personal assistant since the beginning of 1990-s, when Putin was the Head of the Department in the Administration of St. Petersburg. The extortion of a bribe from Sechin and “Rosneft” is equal to an attempt to steal from “Tsar’s pocket”, or to suicide attempt.

Point 3. The decision to carry out “the operational experiment”, the final step in the sting operation, which was to result in the detention or arrest of “the target”, was to be taken at the highest level, at least two weeksbefore the arrest.

It required certain preparations: working out a plan of the operation to guarantee the handing over of 2 million dollars to Ulyukaev at a certain time in a specially selected and prepared place. The place was to be equipped with the video and audio recording equipment. It was to be under tight control of the FSB operatives.

The FSB was to allocate 2 million dollars, which were to be “prepared”: the banknotes copied, marked with special chemicals to leave the signs on the hands of the minister, etc.

To ensure that the decision to arrest the minister would be taken by the Director of the FSB and finally by Vladimir Putin, the group of the FSB operatives had to submit the evidence that Ulyukaev had taken the bribes before and that he would take the money during “the operational experiment”.

Putin and Bortnikov were to be convinced, that Ukyukaev will take 2 million dollars in the Office of the President of “Rosneft”, and that he will take the money in the absence of the President of “Rosneft”, in the presence of his security man, who was the former (and may be still acting) officer of special services.  

That all means only one thing: Ukyukaev had taken the money before, many times and that was video and audio recorded. 

Actually, it was known in Moscow, that the staff in the Ministry of economic development, since Ulyukaev was appointed, used to receive two salaries: one official and one unofficial, in the envelopes, in cash, as bonus for the “good work”.

Point 4. The decision to hold “the operational experiment”, unlike the decision to start the initial investigation and the surveillance on Uljukaev, could not be taken by anyone other than Vladimir Putin. This decision was taken by the President after giving him operational evidence, that was provided by the operatives, including video and audio recordings of Ulyukaev taking money before the “operational experiment”.   The official order to carry out “the experiment” could  have been signed by the head of Department or the Director of the FSB, but the decision on detention could have been taken only by Putin. The director of the FSB, Bortnikov would not dare to take the decision and had no authority. The Russian Minister of Economic Development is not his level of nomenclature. It is in Putin’s power only to take the decision to arrest a minister of that level.

It was a political decision. One more point: Vladimir Putin does not take decisions, which do not benefit him personally, and which he is not interested in personally. It was decision, which needed to be taken in his personal and political interest.

The Game of Elites

Ulyukaev was arrested at a carefully selected place and at a certain time, suitable to Putin for taking this political decision. What is the most important feature of the present political moment? Naturally, the current political moment is determined a) by Donald Trump coming to power in the United States, b) by the dramatic changes in the political elites in the UK, France, Italy, Austria and some other countries of the EU, c) by the growing crisis and divides in the EU’s centers of the political power - Brussels and Strasburg. 

The struggle between the old elite and the new elite in Washington is open and ruthless, though the struggle has not reached its apogee. The old elite is trying to protect its positions, to move into Trump’s team and his Administration people, who are linked and suitable to the old elite, to influence and force Trump to change his position on main issues. The old elite try to convince him, that there is nothing wrong in changing of the position, that he should not be ashamed of changing his views after "thinking and having been informed and acquainted with the real situation in the US and the World”.

Donald Trump keeps his cards close to his chest and from time to time shows that he is ready to change his position and gives old elite some hope. He said that he would not insist that the investigation against Clinton results in her prosecution. He "forgot" to tell about "the wall" in one of his speeches. He said that some elements of the Obamacare might remain valid and can be saved... In doing so, he always keeps a walk out for himself. He would not insist on prosecution, but someone, like new Attorney General, may insist later: Trump has given no guarantee to Hilary Clinton to protect her from prosecution… He has “forgotten” about the “wall”… No, problem. He will remember next time… He agreed to keep some elements of Obamacare… but he will decide later, what will be the elements to survive… 

Trump must win time by appeasing his opponents, he is to slash down demonstrations and criticism against him. He needs time to move into White House peacefully and with dignity. During the election campaign he promised, that he would not warn his enemies before his action. He is doing rightly the same what he said! The old political elite of Europe and the United States had turned into a PR society long ago. They believe in words and forget to face the reality and analyze the facts. They meet with joy the words of Trump, and find in them what Trump exactly wants them to find, and they don’t see, what Trump does not want them to see. 

Who is this “old American elite” from the Russian perspective? This is the elite, who shaped the post-Soviet Russia of Boris Yeltsin. This the elite, who accepted Putin taking over the power in Russia, thinking that he would keep the same course. This is the elite, who had once looked at Putin as a puppet, allowing themselves to cheat him and Medvedev, as Hilary Clinton had done with Kaddafi and voting in the UN Security Council on the no-flight zone in Libya, and neglected the Russian opinion and the Russian national interests in Ukraine by pushing Ukraine in the EU and NATO. This is the elite, who suddenly understood that they no longer in control of the Russian foreign and internal policy, who found that Russia regained the military power, which enables Kremlin, - if not to attack and defeat other countries, - to destroy any State, including the US, if anyone dares to attack Russia. This is the elite, which was offended by Putin and by Trump and has become the common enemy for Putin and Trump.

The hackers, dirt and the real value of Russian liberals

The election campaign in the US of 2016 was characterized by the unprecedented war of "dirt" and compromising materials.  I do not believe that the attacks by Russian hackers only provided information from the computers of the Democratic Party and Clinton's inner circle to Wikileaks, and through Wikileaks to the US and world media. I think that different “hackers” were involved in the operation. Some of them were from powerful and respected organizations from the West, including the US, who covered their attack on Clinton by throwing the whole blame on Russia. There were different forces, not only Russian Secret Services and the hackers, involved in the fight against the old elite. However, it is clear that the hackers, associated with Russian intelligence, left their fingerprints in that fight.

The “dirt”, along with the general dissatisfaction with Washington's policy over the past twenty years, brought Hilary Clinton and old elite down and led Donald Trump to victory. It is clear that any damage to the old American elite will help Trump to strengthen his power, and new “dirt” may be welcomed and may become the powerful weapon in the hands of new American elite.

Where is this “dirt” buried, where it may come from?

For example, “the kompromat” may appear from Europe. However, the current political elite in Europe will not provide Trump with this “dirt” easily. In Europe, it is necessary to change the elite too, but the changing of the European elites may take time, and … the British, the Germans and the French hate to part with their secrets. 

However, the dirt is in demand in Europe now. Especially, in connection to the forthcoming Parliamentary elections in Germany, France and Italy. Many forces wish European political elite a defeat. “Dirt” is bound to appear. We may expect new “Wikileaks show”…

The “dirt” can be found in the Middle East also, but the old Arab elites will not provide information, which damages them and their agents of influence in the US or Europe. To change the Arab elites is difficult, costly and time consuming. Though, there may be the hackers interested in the “Arab files”…

So, here comes the Kremlin, and here come the Russian liberals, packed and well preserved. 

 

The State of the Spies, or Do you know, who you are dealing with?

For many years, starting with Tsarist times, Russia was controlled through the secret services. Several times, it was ruined through them. The Tsarist governments, the Communist party, the modern Kremlin, - all controlled Russia through the Secret Services. There were few years in the history of modern Russia, in the 1990-s, when the pro-Western liberals and the criminal business groups pushed the Special Services out from the control over the Kremlin. This period was called “the seven bankers rule”.

It took only few years for the Russian Secret Services to regain their control. The “bankers rule” resulted in the “counterrevolution” of the Russian Secret Services and in the sting operation, which brought Vladimir Putin on the shoulders of Berezovskiy, Chubais and other liberals and oligarchs into the Moscow Kremlin. Putin was brought into the Moscow Kremlin in such a way, that the criminals and the liberals believed that it was their initiative, their own project, and Putin was their selection, their puppet.

They brought to the Kremlin “a puppet”, who turned to be a dictator, pretending to be polite and soft. Though, now only fools believe in his softness. 

The meal is ready, Sir!

After Putin came to power, most of the Russian liberals, who were trained, brought up and supervised by the old American and European elite, remained in the Kremlin, or nearby – in the Government, the Central Bank and the financial sector’s institutions, the state corporations and companies. They still run (or whatever you call it) the Russian economy and large part of business, but the levers of the political Power were taken away from them.

It appears, that there was deep meaning in the survival and existence of the “old Eltsin’s liberals”. They were kept by Vladimir Putin as “the strategic reserve” like gold, oil and gas deposits.

Trump stated more than once that he was ready to improve relations with Putin and Russia, but the Kremlin can’t relax. Trump will negotiate hard, as he used to do in business. He knows, what he needs to achieve, what he wants to get from Putin, and he will be vigorous and persistent. 

The Kremlin understands this perfectly well. In this game, the old Yeltsin's liberals, with their relations, deep interconnections and ties with the old Western political and business elite, may become the Joker, and Putin might take this Joker out at the right time.

Every year, Vladimir Putin use to have a meeting with dozens of journalists from all corners of Russia. He spends three - four hours answering to their questions, and these meetings are broadcasted by the Russian TV Channels, live. In one of these meetings, Putin told about one US consultant to Anatoliy Chubais. The consultant happened to be a CIA agent. He failed to keep aside and clean from the corruption and tried to bite his part of the “Russian cake”. He was called back to the United States, investigated, accused and put in prison. Putin told this story laughing: it is very difficult for the foreigners, even the officers of CIA, to remain “clean” in Russia.

That was Putin’s message, and I think, that he spoke not about one particular officer or one particular foreigner. He knew, that many of the “consultants” and “handlers” of the Russian liberal elite, as well as in the other former Soviet republics, have got involved in the privatization, which is considered by the people as “extortionate”, lawless, corrupt. It doesn’t matter, that some of these former Soviet Republics try to do their best to position themselves as “anti-Putin” and anti-Russian. Moldova, Ukraine, Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, - all these States are vigorously anti-Russian and anti-Putin, and all of them provide and keep the main channels of money laundering for the Russian criminal groups. And, from 1991, all that channels are under control of the FSB, at that time KGB, who masterminded and generated the processes, which brought the political independence to these republics and separation from Russia. Welcome to the world of Secret Services!

Many Western banks, companies and corporations have their “room with dirt” in the files of the FSB, and a lot of dirt may appear from these files. The privatization and sale of Soviet strategic resources to the Western companies and corporations bypassing customs and taxes. Hundreds of billions of dollars that went black cash to support the regime of Boris Eltsin and his liberals in mid-1990 's and were taken from the Russian Government Building in the boxes from “Xerox” by the liberals to finance Eltsin’s Presidential campaign. The financial crisis of 1998, when the loans, given by the Western and International banks to Russia to overcome default, disappeared back into the West, leaving no trace in Russia. Already mentioned money laundering through the Baltic States, Ukraine and Moldova. By the way, the former Ukrainian President Yanukovich and the new leaders of Moldova can help Russia with additional details, as well as the whistleblowers like Aleksander Onichenko, from the team of the Ukrainian President Poroshenko, who only few days ago handed over to the US Investigators the documents and other evidence of the corruption in Kiev)… The list of the files can be continued ad infinitum.

In the West, the politicians and political analysts misunderstand the nature of the Russian State, its main character. The Russian State is ruled by the Secret Services, and by the men from the SS. These men may not be good economists or businessmen. When they move to the West, they rarely succeed in business, art or other activities. They don’t know, how to start and run a construction company, or a restaurant, or a farm, or a retail company, or a factory. They had no experience, no training. They know how to fight secret wars, how manipulate,     recruit and handle the agents. They look at the people as their possible agents, who can be used in a proper time.

That is the character and the nature of the nowdays Kremlin.

“Killing them softly with this song”

Putin may use the “dirt”, extracted from the Russian liberals, in fighting the old elites in the US and Europe. He may use this Joker to play his game, to bargain with Trump, for example. He may also give this Joker in the hands of Trump and let him use it as he wants.

There are different ways to pump this “dirt” into the West, in a very “soft” and “polite” way. For example, some of the prominent Russian liberals, connected to the old Western elite, might be arrested and charged with the extortion of bribes and corruption, and the information on the criminal activities by the prominent figures in the Western elites might be received during the official criminal investigation. In this case, the Russian procurator may send the information to the American authorities or the European partners and make official inquiry, asking them for the investigation and “checking of the information”. Nothing special, just a routine work, in the best traditions of the democracy… and Special Services: "Dear American partners, we have received the information that your citizens have broken the Russian and the US laws. Please, check…".

Putin doesn’t need to carry out the purges, like Stalin did. It will be enough to arrest rather small group of people, who can provide necessary information. Like Ulyukaev, for example. Ulyukaev is extremely valuable source of information. Since 1980-s, he was the closest associate and friend of Timur Gaidar and Anatoliy Chubais, the leaders of the pro-Western liberals. He remained close to them, when Gaidar became the Head of the first post-Soviet Government in Russia, and Chubais the First Deputy to PM. In 1991, Ulyukaev studied in Austria, with the group, which comprised the future members of the Eltsin’s and Putin’s Governments. The study was organized by the State Department of the USA in accordance with the International Visitor Leadership Program (IVLP). Since that time, this team has become the favorites and the representatives of the interests of the old American elite in Russia. They were involved in everything, good or bad, what happened between the US and Russia, at least, until Putin strengthened his position in the Kremlin…

 

            On the first photo, from left: Aleksandr Shokhin, Minister for labour and later Minister for economy; Petr Aven, Minister for foreign economic relations; Andrey Nechaev, First Deputy Minister for economy and later Minister for finance; Aleksey Ulyukaev; Anatoliy Chubais, First Deputy Prime Minister. On the far right – Sergey Glazyev, at that time First Deputy Minister for foreign economic relations, at present – the Councilor to the President Vladimir Putin.

 

On the second photo: Ulyukaev in Court and under arrest.

 

So, what does this story tell us? What was the reason to start this series with the arrest of Ulyukaev?

By this story, I wanted to show how important are the relations for the world,even the relations between two men only. The difference in the world politics, in the life of many people, who considered themselves to be the elite, untouchable, like the Minister of economic development of the Russian Federation. The World of October 2016 is crucially different from the World of November, and behind all the differences lies one change: the change in the relations between the two men, the Presidents of the USA and Russia. Or, the possibility of the change in the relations.

The importance of the relations in politics, economic and social life will be analyzed in the following parts of this series…

(to be continued…)

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